Coalition Politics

“Whoever forms the largest alliance will form the next government”

As the election is nearing both the national parties are hunting for allies and stitching partnership with the regional parties. In India there are more than 40 prominent regional parties with each having 2 or more seats in the Lok Sabha. Each party has its own area of influence and enjoys considerable vote base in respective constituencies.

Coalition is a pact or treaty among individuals or groups, during which they cooperate in joint action, each in their own self-interest, joining forces together for a common cause. We have seen the grand coalitions during the World Wars between major western countries.

Electoral or political coalitions are practised in a parliamentary system when no single party can achieve majority on its own. And many countries follow this type of alliance or coalition. In India coalition is a very old concept and was first experimented in 1916 when Congress and Muslim League reached an agreement to pressure the British government.

After Independence, for nearly two and a half decade, Congress enjoyed uninterrupted majority with a weak opposition. But due to Emergency, many fragmented opposition parties came together to form Janata Party. Under Morarji Desai, India saw the first coalition government in 1977. The main purpose of the alliance was to defeat Congress and they did so. But soon they started disintegrating and couldn't complete the term due to differences among the parties.

The 1990s saw a steady rise in the regional parties particularly due to the decreasing clout of the once dominating Congress. The BJP which saw a steady increase during this period formed the first successful government in 1999, after two unsuccessful attempts in 1996 and 1998.

The BJP due to its Hindu fundamentalism is considered untouchable by many secular regional politics. But Atal Bihari Vajpayee forged alliance with 15 regional parties and named the coalition, National Democratic Alliance or NDA, to form the government. While the Congress defeated the BJP forming a coalition with 12 parties named United Progressive Alliance or UPA and successfully completed 10 years of rule.

With rise in the powerful regional leaders like Mamata, Mayawati, Mulayam, Nitish, Jalyalalitha, Naveen Patnaik and decreasing popularity of national parties it is important to form alliance. To do the math, in the elections held in 2004 and 2009, the number of seats won by regional parties excluding the BJP & Congress is nearly half of the seats. It appears that whoever forms the biggest coalition will be forming the government. The power now lies in the powerful regional parties. Also, there are talks of a Third Front and Fourth Front amongst these parties. But such arrangement without any central leader will be difficult to materialise and looks good only on paper.

          

          In the run-up to the 16^th general elections the Congress has lost many of its allies like the DMK, TMC to name a few.  While the BJP which is poised to win the election has done its homework well, it had the biggest blow when JD(U), oldest partner, deserted the BJP.

            But BJP led NDA has made progress in adding parties to its coalition in the past few months. The biggest achievement is the 6-party alliance in Tamil Nadu. Some people believe this may change equations in Tamil Nadu which is now dominated by the two parties DMK & the AIADMK. This is the list of alliances by BJP for the Lok Sabha Elections:

Maharashtra	Shiv Sena    Swabhimani Paksha          RPI(A)          Rashtriya Samaj Paksha    MNS
Tamil Nadu	DMDK          PMK            MDMK          KMDK                     IJK
Bihar	Lok Janshakti Party                     Rashtriya Lok Samata Party
Punjab	Shiromani Akali Dal
West Bengal	Gorkha Janmukti Morcha
Haryana	Haryana Janhit Congress
North East	National People's Party (India)          Naga People's Front          United Democratic Front          Manipur Peoples Party

Also B S Yeddyurappa and Subramaniam Swamy merged their parties into BJP increasing the strength of BJP in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu further. The newly formed party Jana Sena of Pawan Kalyan, famous movie actor of Andhra Pradesh and brother of Chiranjeevi, has declared support to BJP. Even many small parties with pure political gains in mind are cozying up to BJP. This puts the BJP ahead of others in the race.

But the point to remember here is bigger regional parties, with a chance to win more than 20 seats are playing cards close to their chest these include Samajwadi Party(SP), Bahujan Samaj Party(BSP), YSRCP, TMC, BJD, JD(U), AIADMK. Together these parties are expected to win more than 120 seats. And they can swing this multi-cornered election.

So, who forms the government does not only depend on the individual tally of the Congress or the BJP, but also their alliance partners and regional parties as well. With the weakening national parties Coalition Politics is here to stay.

-By Suresh Siripuram