BJP’s Mission 272+

“Politics is a number game”

            Looking at the mood of the nation and the current state of affairs of the country, rampant corruption in each and every government department be it the State government or the Central government, change is the mantra of the nation. Capitalizing on the anti-incumbency of the Central government the BJP, principal opposition party of the country took a slew of measures like naming Prime Ministerial candidate Mr Narendra Modi, bringing back Mr B. S. Yeddyurappa, launching advertisements and the Mission 272+.

            For a party to form a government at centre needs at least 272 Member of Parliament in the lower house of Parliament, Lok Sabha. And BJP on its own has never touched this ‘Magic Figure’ the best BJP did was 189 in the 13th Lok Sabha, With this two things in mind the Bhartiya Janta Party launched its Mission 272+ under the leadership of Mr Modi to win as many seats on its own knowing completely that their poster boy Modi cannot attract many parties to NDA.

So let us analyse what are the chances of BJP forming the next government. Before that let us look at the graph of BJP till now. In 1984, the BJP won 2 seats. Thereon Mr Lal Krishna Advani was appointed Party president, and under him the BJP became the political voice of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement. And moved from moderate Hindu nationalism to more hardline Hindutva and Hindu fundamentalism. Which lead to 86 seats in 1989 and made their support crucial for the V.P. Singh government.

Following on this agenda of Hindutva, Advani begun “Rath Yatra”, which was followed by riots in the country, he along with the help of various Hindu organisations like VHP and RSS organised a rally towards the controversial Babri Masjid. And under mysterious circumstances parts of the mosque was demolished. Polarising the voters further and BJP emerged as the largest party in the Parliament. The party won 189 seats in 1999 went on to form the government along with help of 17 other smaller parties. But due to polarizing nature of Mr Advani under a compromise second most popular leader Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee was made the Prime Minister of India.

There are very good chances for the BJP in the Election 2014 but there are hurdles in the path for the party. In 1999, Mr Vajpayee had forged alliance with 17 parties to form the government. But as of now BJP has only four allies ShivSena, Akali Dal, AGP and INLD. And it’s difficult for many parties to be seen together with Narendra Modi, given his track record towards Muslims and the Post-Godhra roits, let alone form an alliance. There are 3 scenarios that can emerge on the counting day. First, if the BJP on its own can manage to win more than 200 seats, and the NDA alliance crosses 235-240 its cake walk for Modi reach 7RCR.

Second, if the NDA alliance cannot cross 200 seats, it will be difficult for Mr Modi to be PM of the country and attract many parties. Sources within the party tell they are prepared for such a situation and a compromise candidates are there to take over, but this is worst situation for the BJP given that they have been backing Mr Modi for the past 1 year as their PM nominee. This is the most unlikely situation.

Third, the NDA could only manage 180 seats, in this case it is doing rounds that a candidate outside BJP may get the backing of the BJP. Speculations are rife that Mr ChandraBabu Naidu of the TDP having good personal relation with Mr Modi can be made PM. TDP backed the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government.

Keeping all the arithmetics in the mind Mr Modi and the BJP launched the Mission 272+. Only time will tell who will be PM of India. But there is too much at stake for Modi and BJP than any other party. The best hope for this country will a stable government which will last for 5 years.